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OUR CHALLENGE

Emergency Planning

Resilience is an illusion. In saying that I mean no disrespect to resilience officers, whose work is honourable, vital and necessary. However, whether resilience has as its goal to 'bounce back' or to 'bounce forward', it represents a tendency to seek homeostasis, in other words a quest for an eventual stable equilibrium.

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Resilience is an illusion

Emergency Planning

After much pondering of the question, I have come to the conclusion that resilience is an illusion. This is not to denigrate the work of resilience managers, as there is obviously much to be done to reduce the risk and impact of adverse events. However, the concept of resilience is, I think, suspect. References Alexander, D.E.

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The United Kingdom's National Risk Register - 2023 Edition

Emergency Planning

In reality, it is at least equally likely that the major burden the UK will have to bear will involve natural hazards such as storms, heatwaves, wildfire or cold and snow. In the new version of the NRR natural hazards are given shorter descriptions and less prominence than that attributed to hostile risks. (f)

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Unlocking Climate Change Resilience Through Critical Event Management and Public Warning

everbridge

There has also been a rise in geophysical events including earthquakes and tsunamis which have killed more people than any of the other natural hazards under review in this report. Disaster risk is becoming systemic with one event overlapping and influencing another in ways that are testing our resilience to the limit,” Mizutori said.

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Community Resilience or Community Dystopia in Disaster Risk Reduction?

Emergency Planning

Yet, faced with natural hazards, relative isolation, economic deprivation and cultural decline, it badly needs social solidarity, and that is something it lacks. Several arguments can be marshalled against the idea of community resilience:- The concept of 'community' has no inherent geographical scale.

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The 2019 Global Assessment Report (GAR)

Emergency Planning

Unofficial voices have suggested that the 'cure to damage ratio' for natural hazards is 1:43. Global probabilistic assessment of risk from natural hazards for the Global Assessment Report 2013 (GAR13). Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities. GNCSODR 2015.

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Leonardo and the Deluge

Emergency Planning

Towards the end of his life he became preoccupied with the threat of the Universal Deluge (in this he was not alone: see my paper on the etymology of the term 'resilience'). Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13(11): 2707-2716. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1986.tb00102.x