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Foresight

Emergency Planning

A principle of cascading disasters is that the world is ever more closely linked by networks on which we all depend for communications, commerce, enlightenment and entertainment. It is obvious that military instability is likely to complicate and retard the process of getting natural hazard impacts under control.

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Resilience is an illusion

Emergency Planning

Previously (Alexander 2013), I thought that Holling was wrong about resilience. Secondly, and more importantly, vulnerability, risk, impact and their controlling factors are all trending. Migration, conflict, climate extremes, proliferating technological failure and associated consequences all pose this kind of threat.

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The 2019 Global Assessment Report (GAR)

Emergency Planning

An example of this for the 2013 GAR can be found in Di Mauro (2014). It could be argued that political decision making is the greatest barrier of all to successful disaster risk reduction. Unofficial voices have suggested that the 'cure to damage ratio' for natural hazards is 1:43. GNCSODR 2015.

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Leonardo and the Deluge

Emergency Planning

Therefore, all progress depends upon the unreasonable man." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13(11): 2707-2716. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-2707-2013 Clayton, M. Centuries later, George Bernard Shaw summarised it as follows: "A reasonable man adapts himself to the world. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1986.tb00102.x

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Towards a Taxonomy of Disasters

Emergency Planning

The study of disasters is a 'lateral discipline' that, to varying degrees embraces at least 42 other disciplines and professions (Alexander 2013). d) Intentional disasters, comprising all forms of terrorism and sabotage. (e) Na-techs' (natural-technological disasters) appear in this category (Krausmann et al. Alexander, D.

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Disaster Risk Reduction is not a Paradigm

Emergency Planning

Kuhn's is a model of innovation diffusion, based on observations of the 'model of natural science' (Harvey 1969). It lacks the spatial dimension of the 1960s work of the geographers Torsten Hägerstrand (1968) and his colleagues, but it has all the other components. Natural Hazards 86: 969-988. In reality it was a fad.